Likelihood Based inference for Diffusion Driven State Space Models

Siddhartha Chib | Neil Shephard | Michael Pitt
Washington University in St. Louis | Oxford University | University of Warwick

Abstract

In this paper we develop likelihood based inferential methods for a novel class of (potentially non-stationary) diffusion driven state space models. Examples of models in this class are continuous time stochastic volatility models and counting process models. Although our methods are sampling based, making use of Markov chain Monte Carlo methods to sample the posterior distribution of the relevant unknowns, our general strategies and details are different from previous work on related but simpler models. The proposed methods are easy to implement and simulation efficient. Importantly, unlike methods for related models, the performance of our method is not worsened, in fact it improves, as the degree of latent augmentation is increased to reduce the bias of the Euler approximation. We also consider the problems of model choice, model checking and filtering and apply the techniques and ideas to both simulated and real data.

The paper is available here in pdf.


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